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Report

London’s Social Housing Waiting Times

Londoners are waiting years - if not decades - for social housing. This report delves into the data, to outline the reality of social housing waiting times in the capital.

To clearly outline the state of social housing in the capital, and push national government to increase investment, we’ve put together a borough-by-borough analysis of social housing data. Click on our interactive map below to see social housing waiting lists, times and borough-based allocations policies: 

Key Findings

  • More than 323,000 households in London are on waiting lists for social housing – more than double the population of Cambridge. This total has increased by over 33% since 2017, adding 81,000 more households to London’s total.
  • East London has the highest combined waiting list total of any London sub-region, more than North, South and West London put together.
  • A shortage of larger properties has led to high waiting times for family-sized homes. City-wide, households can expect to wait 844 days (2 years and 3 months) for a one-bed property, while the wait for a family-sized home of four or more bedrooms stands at 2,304 days (6 years and 3 months).
  • There are significant differences in the prospects of households of different sizes and housing needs waiting for social housing in different parts of the capital. East London has the highest waiting times for properties of all sizes (1 to 4+ bedrooms) while South London has the lowest – but even within these regions there are large differences between different boroughs.
  • There is a stark difference between average waiting times for social housing between Inner and Outer London boroughs. For one-bedroom properties, the average waiting time in Inner London is 1,175 days (3 years and 2 months), while in Outer London this drops to 557 days (1 year and 6 months). This disparity in waiting time is experienced across all property sizes and reflects the sharper housing need in Inner London boroughs.
  • The lack of a standardised dataset for social housing waiting times and list totals makes mapping the extent and nature of London’s social housing needs challenging, undermining the ability of national and local decision-makers to respond effectively to the needs of households among those most affected by London’s housing crisis.

Introduction

Social Housing in London

London is the epicentre of the housing crisis in England. Dwindling availability of social homes, stagnant wages, and rising house prices and rents have led to long waiting times for vital social housing.

Social housing is generally provided by local authorities or housing associations, with rents at around 50% of market rates. It is the most affordable of the three main tenures and offers far greater security than private renting.

Like elsewhere in England, the social housing sector in London shrunk dramatically between 1979 and the early 2000’s although this decline has stabilised somewhat over the last decade.  Social housing landlords in London owned 793,250 affordable homes for rent in 2022, the highest total since 2002.

However, despite the loss of the capital’s social stock slowing, the need for social housing has only grown in recent years, with London seeing a net loss of social homes every year in the past decade. Analysis by the National Housing Federation suggests that in 2021 more than a quarter of a million people (257,094) in London had housing needs that would be best met by social housing.

To meet this need, the most recent analysis suggests that London would need to deliver 33,000 new homes for social rent annually for 15 years. Current delivery is a fraction of this level – between 2020/21 and 2022/23,  only 1,148 completions per-year were made for social rented properties.

One of the consequences of this under-supply is that increasing numbers of households in need are on waiting lists for a social tenancy. Between 2017 and 2023, the number of households on London’s waiting lists increased by 33%, with more 81,000 households added to the register – equal to the total number of households on waiting lists in the East Midlands.

Today, more than 323,000 households in London are on a social housing waiting list – double the population of Cambridge. This is the highest of any region in England and makes up a quarter of the country’s total population on waiting lists.

While these headline figures are an alarming call to action, they do not provide much-needed insight into the diverse characteristics and needs of households waiting for social housing, nor the relative pressures facing London’s different sub-regions and boroughs. More granular data is needed to understand the nature of the capital’s housing need and what might be done to remedy it.

This report for the first time provides a snapshot of waiting times across the city by sub-region and bedroom size, as well as borough-by-borough analysis.

Thanks to new data supplied by London local authorities, this analysis looks beyond the routinely published statistics, offering new insight into the severity of London’s housing need and offers the most comprehensive and detailed account of social housing waiting lists in the capital.

The new data not only brings fresh insight into the barriers faced by households on waiting lists for social housing, but the significant challenges facing the capital’s social housing developers and providers.

It is intended as a tool for social housing providers, local authorities, government bodies and other institutions in the housing space for understanding the depth of London’s housing crisis and its effects on households.

Analysing London’s Social Housing Waiting Lists – Summary

There are more than 323,000 households on waiting lists for social housing in London. This is more than any other region of England and makes up a quarter of the country’s total population on housing waiting lists.

However, these pressures are not evenly spread across the city. Across its 10 boroughs, East London has the highest number of households on waiting lists more than the number of households on waiting lists in North, South and West London combined (16 boroughs).

City-wide, households can expect to wait between 844 days (2 years and 3 months) for a one-bed property to 2,304 days (6 years and 3 months) for a family-sized home of four or more bedrooms. Within these averages, however, there are significant variations in the prospects of households of different sizes and housing needs waiting for social housing in different parts of the capital.

One-bedroom properties have the lowest average waiting time, though this varies significantly between inner and outer boroughs. A single-bedroom household in Inner London will wait more than double the length of time (1,175 days) for an appropriate one-bedroom social home than in Outer London (557 days).

Waiting times for properties with three or more bedrooms are high London-wide, but the wait varies considerably in different parts of the city. For larger homes, waiting lists in East London are highest, with households waiting 2,102 days (five years and nine months) for a three-bed property. In contrast, despite comprising twice the number of boroughs as North London and a population over 68% higher (985,000 and 1,657,000 respectively), South London has significantly lower average waiting times for all bedroom sizes. For example, waiting times for three-bed properties are 822 days on average, or two years and three months.

The data also emphasises the extent of the challenge facing social housing providers across London. While the need is clearly greatest for larger homes, these are more costly and challenging to deliver, especially in London where land now accounts for 70% of the cost of delivering a home. With developers and local authorities facing tight budgets, these costs make it more difficult to justify building social homes with more bedrooms as opposed to a greater number of smaller properties with one or two bedrooms.

Detailed Analysis

Waiting lists

The data for North London paints a varied picture, despite only covering three boroughs (Haringey, Barnet and Enfield) as defined by sub-region in the London Plan. As a sub-region, North London has the lowest total number of households on housing registers at 22,966.  One borough, Haringey, makes up the bulk of this figure, with 12,826 households. This also gives the borough the seventh highest waiting list in London. By comparison, Enfield (5,991 households) and Barnet (4,149 households) have waiting lists below the average for Outer London boroughs at 7,655 households.

South London’s six boroughs combine to have the second lowest number of households on waiting lists in the capital at nearly 35,000 households on the latest published statistics. Our analysis using Freedom of Information request data suggests this total is now higher than the latest official statistics indicate at more than 40,000 households.

According to official statistics, in West London over 61,000 households are on social housing waiting lists, the third highest sub-regional total behind East and Central London. Across the  seven West London boroughs, Brent has the highest waiting list at over 28,000 households. Freedom of Information request data suggests the total sub-regional waiting list is slightly lower, with 56,000 households in the past year.

Waiting times by bedroom

Across all bedroom sizes (1 to 4+ bedrooms), Outer London has lower waiting times. This is an especially stark contrast for waiting times for homes with three bedrooms and four or more bedrooms where Inner London has waiting times 65% and 76% higher than Outer London, respectively. On average, Havering, Bromley and Bexley are the best performing boroughs for waiting times for larger properties.

East London also has, on average, the longest waiting times for social homes across all bedroom sizes (1 to 4+ bedrooms), closely followed by Central London.

The widest disparity in waiting time between London sub-regions is between South and East London. Despite having 160% more social homes (both council and private registered provider) than South London, one-bedroom households on housing registers in East London wait, on average, 792 days longer than similar households in South London. This disparity is even greater for households in East London seeking properties with four or more bedrooms who can expect to wait even longer than in South London, at an average of around four years and ten months (1,762 days).

Despite having a total number of households on its waiting list below the London average, Hackney surpasses almost all other boroughs for average waiting times by bedroom size. This is only superseded by Lewisham which has the longest waiting time for a one-bedroom property in London (2,208 days).

South London has the lowest waiting times for social homes of all bedroom size, with Sutton having the shortest wait of all London boroughs (excluding City of London) for one and two bedroom homes, and Bromley having the shortest waiting times for larger homes of three bedrooms and above.

Even with double the number of boroughs as North London and a population 62% higher (1,066,000 and 1,728,000 people respectively), South London has significantly lower average waiting times for all bedroom sizes. This difference is especially large for three bedroom properties where North London households wait 139% longer than in South London.

Conclusions

These fresh insights into the nature and extent of the pressures on social housing in London reiterate the urgent case for expanding the supply of social housing in London. It also highlights the complexity of the current situation and the variations in pressure facing local authorities and housing providers, and the differing needs of households in different parts of the capital.

This study also points to a previously under-recognised need for improved data collection and analysis to guide policy, planning and housing delivery.

Drawing on our previous work on London’s housing crisis and this new analysis, we present the following recommendations for policymakers:

Recommendation 1 – Consider greater collaboration to meet social housing needs 

Our analysis highlights the variations in the housing needs of households on social housing waiting lists. Local authorities should assess the further potential for cross-boundary or sub-regional social housing lists, potentially improving allocation rates across local authority boundaries and easing waiting times in pressured housing areas while speeding up the settlement of households in need.  

Housing associations and other private registered providers already work in partnership with local authorities. For example, the Mayor of London’s existing Housing Moves scheme for social tenants who are victims of domestic abuse as well as former homeless households is a positive example of cross-boundary allocations. Collaborative models like this could be developed on a pan-London basis to achieve better housing outcomes for London’s households in need. 

Recommendation 2 – Increase social housing supply 

Increasing the supply of social housing in London to 33,000 a year for 15 years through a boost to the Affordable Homes Programme with funding up to £15.1bn a year, alongside longer-term rent settlements, greater flexibility of funding for both delivery and improvements, and longer terms for deployment. 

Recommendation 3 – Unlock development where it is most needed 

Unlocking strategic parcels of land in London’s Green Belt on designation ‘grey belt’ land for development into social housing-led residential areas could help achieve the number of social homes London needs faster. The creation of new Mayoral Development Corporations could also help streamline the planning process and ensure developments better reflect local housing need  

Recommendation 4 – End Right to Buy to minimise the loss of vital social stock 

Government should end the Right to Buy scheme to arrest the loss of social stock. Our report Homes Fit for Londoners: Solving London’s housing crisis highlighted that 40% of council houses sold through Right to Buy are now on the private rented sector market. In the meantime, local authorities should be empowered to use funds acquired from Right to Buy sales in parallel with investment from its Housing Revenue Account to deliver new council homes at an accelerated pace. 

Recommendation 5 – Better data for better policy 

Our analysis found a patchwork of different approaches to social housing waiting list data, making detailed comparative regional analysis of the needs and characteristics of households in need of social housing challenging. Creating a central and standardised data set for London’s social housing waiting lists will enable better understanding of housing need at a local and sub-regional level. This standardised system has further applications in the allocation of funding at a local and national level, particularly in tackling homelessness or the delivery of new social housing such as the Affordable Homes Programme. 

Greater levels of transparency around social housing waiting list data would also empower social housing applicants, existing tenants and civil society stakeholders to engage more meaningfully in policy and practice to improve the social housing sector. Strengthening the framework for collecting data would also improve how issues highlighted in our previous four recommendations would be addressed. 

We recommend the development of a standardised framework for the collection and analysis of borough-level data on social housing waiting lists, waiting times by bedroom size and banding, deployed through regulations directed by the Regulator for Social Housing or Housing Ombudsman. Given the discretion councils have to specify local allocations policies, to build a coherent account of waiting lists by banding, this framework could be limited to presenting waiting list data by the categories of persons prescribed within the Housing Act 1996 and statutory guidance as being entitled to reasonable preference for social housing, such as those who are statutorily homelessness, occupying unsafe or unsanitary housing, or people who need to move on medical or welfare grounds. 

 

A note on methodology and reasoning

To secure the data needed to carry out this analysis, Centre for London submitted Freedom of Information requests to London’s 32 local authorities and the City of London Corporation, requesting information on the total number of households on their housing registers, as well as the average projected wait time before being allocated a social home. We also included requests for data on waiting times and total number of households waiting for allocation to wheelchair-adapted social homes.

We received responses from 32 of the 33 contacted organisations with 30 providing data which has been represented in this report. Due to difficulties with data access, one local authority’s data was not collected and was subsequently not included in our analysis. This lack of data further emphasises our first recommendation on improving transparency and accessibility of social housing waiting list data.

In its raw form, it is challenging to use housing register data for comparative analysis. This is due to local authorities holding unique allocation policies which vary significantly and are subject to several statutory requirements and individual council policies. For example, some local authorities will allow lower-priority households to remain on the register despite being unlikely to be allocated a social home, while other councils focus more deliberately on higher-priority households.

Data on waiting list totals and times is also affected by some councils who may perform periodic reviews of their lists, removing households who have not actively bid for properties or who may be unlikely to be allocated homes. This again makes comparison of waiting lists to analyse London’s social housing needs challenging.

In some cases, external policy changes can affect housing register waiting times and totals. Since 2010, changes to eligibility requirements and the loss of social housing stock from Right to Buy sales has depleted local authority capacity to allocate housing to a larger waiting list and in a timeframe which better reflects severity of housing need. This has continued into the 2020s with the introduction of new eligibility standards such as British Homes for British Workers, housing for victims of domestic violence, and housing for former or current Armed Forces personnel.

As a result of this complex landscape, there are limitations to the analysis we could undertake of social housing waiting lists at the city, sub-regional and borough level. These, and the steps we took to mitigate them, are discussed below.

Definitions and methodology

Where our analysis has reflected sub-regions of London, we have used the definition used by the London Plan which represents a strategic overview of the capital for monitoring and co-ordination purposes. As part of this report’s purpose as an advocacy guide, using this definition of sub-regions also reflects on planning and development priorities in these areas.

For statistical analysis on waiting times, due to the differences in the way that boroughs provided data to us, we have standardised waiting times data to create a useable data set with comparable units. This is because boroughs provided social housing waiting times in different units – for example, some councils provided data in months and years, others in months or weeks only.

In order to standardise these different data, we have calculated the waiting times by converting all units to days. As such, there may be slight variations between the standardised borough-level data we present and the raw data provided to by councils. We provide links to data provided by local authorities the original format on the borough-level pages.

Where boroughs did not respond to the Freedom of Information request, to create a more complete picture of number of households on social housing waiting list, we draw on the most recent publicly available data.

A note on allocations policies and prioritisation

One of the initial aims of this project was to assess the role and impact of different allocations policies on waiting times.

Local authorities are not legally required to maintain a housing waiting list, but must have an allocation scheme to decide who gets prioritised for social housing and are required to publish this.

Local allocations schemes have to give reasonable preference for social housing allocation to certain types of households, such as people who are statutorily homeless or who are living in overcrowded or unsanitary housing. They are also required to take into account other duties and strategies, such as under the Equality Act, their local homelessness strategies and, in London, the London Housing Strategy. More recently, statutory guidance requires local authorities to also give preference to households affected by domestic abuse and UK Armed Forces personnel.

Beyond these requirements, however, local authorities have considerable discretion to decide who can be allocated social housing in their area and what level of priority they are given.

Local authorities go about this prioritisation in different ways, but most use either a points-based or banding system. A points-based approach ranks people on the waiting list by awarding allocation points on the basis of different categories of need, and sometimes for how long the household has been on the waiting list. Banding schemes, in contrast, group households into bands which reflect different types and levels of housing need or the particular priorities of the local authority’s allocation scheme.

As a result, there is substantial variation in how local authorities prioritise different types of households and levels of housing need, which makes building up a coherent picture of waiting times for households in different situations challenging. Evidence of this can be seen in how local authorities band wheelchair-adapted homes. Some local authorities have banding schemes which separates the housing need as a priority band while others categorise them as a housing stock measuring homes by number of bedrooms. This makes the analysis of demand and wait lists for social housing among wheelchair users more complex.

For example, despite all local authorities being required to give preference to households who are statutorily homeless, some do not prescribe a specific band for homeless households and instead incorporate homeless households into composite bands which take into account a range of other factors. This makes it impossible to determine how long the average homeless household in London who is eligible for social housing can expect to wait before being provided with a secure home. This in turn it more difficult to build an accurate picture of London’s social housing waiting times for households with different levels of housing need.

Sources

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