How people travel in outer London today
People’s travel choices are affected by the options available to them, as well as their personal beliefs and attitudes. Driving is much more common in outer London than inner London because sustainable options are less available.
This could be changed by making it easier for people to use public transport, walk, or cycle – and by making it harder for people to own and drive high-polluting private vehicles.
The factors influencing people’s travel choices
The travel environment
The way our cities and towns are designed can greatly influence how people choose to travel. The provision of segregated cycle lanes, cycle parking and safe crossing points were highlighted by many people we interviewed as key to encouraging people to travel via active and sustainable modes.
In contrast, areas that have been designed to make space for cars may see a greater dependence on this mode. The availability of driveways and on-street parking spaces can encourage people to make journeys by private car, especially if there are few attractive alternatives. In 2017, a TfL analysis found that the availability of off-street parking increases the probability that a household owns a car by 23 per cent. 15
Poor access to the public transport network can contribute to greater use of private cars. In London there is a correlation between the boroughs in which a higher proportion of households own a car, and those scoring worst on TfL’s Public Transport Accessibility Level metric (which assesses connectivity to the transport network by combining walking time to stations or stops with the level of service provided – see Figure 2). 16 69 per cent of households in outer London have access to or own a car, compared with 42 per cent in inner London and 77 per cent across England as a whole. Compared to the rest of England, a greater proportion of households in outer London with access to a car have only one, rather than two or more cars.
Even when people are well connected to public transport, other factors can make these services unattractive – including long journey times, overcrowding on trains and buses, and infrequent or indirect routes. For others, even decent public transport options struggle to compete with the convenience of using a car, and the social norm this represents.
There exists a link between low-density development and higher levels of car dependence 17: in areas with higher population density, fewer households own a car or van (see Figure 3). Higher proportions of car ownership in areas with low population density can be due to residents needing to travel a greater distance to access everyday services and amenities. Residents may also need to travel further to access the public transport network.
Today, approximately 22 per cent of Londoners live within 400 metres of a London Cycleway. The cycle network is focused on offering radial routes to and from central and inner London, meaning that while good coverage exists towards the centre of the city, many areas in outer London have very little or none (see Figure 4). Radial routes are useful for commuting, but less so in the case of local journeys for family and leisure purposes. Indeed, differences in cycling uptake persist among Londoners, with men, people aged under 35, and people in medium-to-high income groups more likely to cycle than others. 18
In regard to cycle safety, SafeCycleLDN has produced a more comprehensive map of places in London that are safe to cycle. While these areas cover much more of the capital, there remain many cold spots in outer London (see Figure 5).
Where segregated cycle lanes have been introduced in London (concentrated in inner London), cycling flows on those roads increase by 25 per cent in the first year following introduction, and by 20 per cent per year thereafter for up to three years. 19 But access to cycle routes is not the only issue. According to the Metropolitan Police, more than 21,000 bikes were stolen in London during 2021 – a fact that is likely to dissuade many potential cyclists from buying a bike without access to secure storage. 20 A Freedom of Information request in 2022 found that more than 60,000 people in London had applied for access to cycle parking near their home, and were on the waiting list for this. 16 Providing sufficient cycle storage is essential if the many people who find it difficult to store a bike in their home are to take up cycling.
Car clubs operate in every London borough, with approximately 3,500 car club vehicles across the capital. We use the term “car clubs” to refer to cars that can be rented by the hour or by the day or week (sometimes referred to as “car rental”). They have historically been most successful in areas where they represent one of a suite of travel options, particularly areas with good public transport links. This has meant they tend to be concentrated in inner London, where fewer people own a car, rather than in outer London. 22 There are approximately 600,000 car club members in London, of whom about half (300,000, equivalent to 3.4 per cent of London’s population) have used their membership in the past year. 23 A survey of car club members by advocacy organisation CoMoUK found that 23 per cent said they would have bought a car had they not joined a car club, and 16 per cent said they owned at least one less car than when they first joined. 16
Shared active travel schemes – where people can rent a bike, e-bike, or e-scooter for short periods – don’t operate in many parts of outer London. Lower population density and less reliable cycling infrastructure (such as cycle lanes) can reduce demand; hills in some areas are also a factor.
The costs associated with driving in London have changed in the past two decades, beginning with the 2003 introduction of the Congestion Charge in central London. It is expected that later this year, the Ultra Low Emission Zone will expand to cover Greater London. This means that driving through the city centre in any car comes with a cost, and (from later this year) so will driving anywhere in London in a car that doesn’t meet emissions standards. There is evidence that these changes have reduced the use of polluting cars in the existing inner London ULEZ zone. 25 Research in the Netherlands finds that approximately 40 per cent of people who own or intend to buy a car express a willingness to use car sharing to replace some of the trips they take by private car, while 20 per cent would be likely to give up a planned car purchase or a car they already own when a car-sharing scheme becomes available. 26
Still, the North and South Circular roads, the M25, and the rest of London’s extensive road network offer an ease of travel that is unrivalled for many routes. At the same time, off-street parking is more available in outer London than in inner London, making parking relatively easier. 15
Capabilities and needs
Personal travel needs can also significantly influence people’s choice of transport mode. Those who need to travel long distances for work or school may not be able to walk or cycle, relying instead on public transport or cars for these trips. Similarly, travelling with children or other dependants can also reduce the transport options that people feel are available to them.
The gendered nature of domestic and caring responsibilities means that women generally make more frequent, short trips throughout the day, often with multiple stops. 28 In contrast, men tend to make fewer trips, typically long-distance radial journeys during peak hours. Across the UK, men are twice as likely as women to make commutes lasting an hour, whereas women make the majority (55 per cent) of trips lasting less than 15 minutes. 16 However, urban planning in London has often focused on transport corridors that carry people from suburban local centres into central London, reflecting a male bias.
The Covid-19 pandemic has reduced the number of radial journeys Londoners are making, with fewer people commuting into central London due to flexible home-working options available for some. Even prior to the pandemic, 41 per cent of outer London residents’ trips took place wholly within outer London. In contrast, only 26 per cent of trips by residents of inner London took place wholly within inner London. 30
The ability to access the Internet can also influence travel behaviour. Londoners who cannot go online may find themselves digitally excluded from buying some types of ticket or from accessing up-to-date timetable information. Digitally excluded people are more likely to be older, disabled, and on a lower income. 31 These elements often interact, meaning that these Londoners may face multiple barriers to travelling in the city. For example, many Londoners have limited public transport options due to a lack of step-free access, difficulties getting a seat, and few staff at stations to provide assistance. With only 25 per cent of rail stations and 91 out of 270 Underground stations offering step-free access, buses are often the most accessible mode of travel for disabled Londoners. 32
Older Londoners represent a higher share of the population in outer London than in the rest of the capital. 33 Journey purposes for this group shift away from the focus on work, towards more leisure and personal trips. 34 On buses, particular concerns for older Londoners may include ensuring disabled people get priority in the wheelchair space, making sure drivers don’t pull away before passengers are seated, and guaranteeing that audio-visual announcements are in place on every bus. 35
Many people in outer London travel with children. A greater proportion of people in outer London are responsible for a child than in the rest of the capital: there are around 34 children for every 100 working-age adults in outer London, compared to 26 in inner London and 31 in the rest of England. 36 Certain modes of travel are less attractive, less accessible and less safe for people travelling with children.
Though all restrictions on travel have been lifted in London following the Covid-19 pandemic, Londoners who are at a higher risk of severe illness from contracting Covid-19 may continue to avoid public transport. A recent survey conducted by wellbeing specialist Puressentiel found that one in three Londoners avoid public transport due to hygiene reasons. 37
Attitudes
Personal values and attitudes also play a large role in determining travel behaviour. The decision to travel via private car is not simply an economic choice: it also flows from emotional responses to driving and car ownership. When associated with feelings of protection, security and safety, cars can provide many people with feelings of empowerment that other modes of transport may not offer. Cultural attitudes can also shape travel choices, with some communities viewing car ownership and travel as a sign of status and success. In contrast, cycling may carry associations of poverty, disadvantage, and lack of freedom. 38
Safety is also a key consideration for many people, particularly women and people from minority ethnic groups. In a survey conducted by Centre for London in 2019, 24 per cent of women cited worries about personal safety as a barrier to using the Tube more frequently, compared with only 13 per cent of men. 20 per cent of people from minority ethnic groups reported the same view about bus travel, compared to 11 per cent of White respondents. 39 Research on safe travel in London by transport watchdog London TravelWatch found that of all modes, the Tube, the bus, and cycling ranked highest in terms of people feeling fairly unsafe or very unsafe. 40 Over one-third (36 per cent) of those who reported feeling unsafe said they had decided to use a car, motorcycle, or other private vehicle more in the past five years. 16
People’s attitudes towards the technology associated with enforcing traffic restrictions, such as automatic number plate recognition (ANPR), plays an important role too, with privacy campaigners presenting a legal challenge to their use in London in 2022. 42
How people travel in outer London compared to elsewhere
According to data from Transport for London, trips by active and sustainable modes of transport account for 60 per cent of trips made by outer London residents, compared to 78 per cent of trips by residents of inner London 43 (see Figure 6).
In outer London, the most-used forms of transport are
- walking (38 per cent of journeys)
- driving or being a passenger in a private car (38 per cent of journeys)
- And using public transport (20 per cent of journeys).
In outer London, walking and public transport are used for a smaller proportion of trips compared to inner London, while driving is used for twice the proportion of trips (38 per cent in outer London vs 19 per cent in inner London).
Cycle mode share accounts for just two per cent of trips taken by residents of outer London, a figure that has remained broadly unchanged for the past two decades. 44 The proportion of people cycling to work in outer London increased from 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2021: 45 by comparison, cycling to work in inner London increased from 7.2 per cent to 9.0 per cent.
Though there has been a gradual shift toward more sustainable travel modes in outer London, private transport (largely cars) has remained the most popular mode over time. 46 From 2005 to 2020, the proportion of outer London trips made using sustainable modes increased from less than 50 per cent to nearly 60 per cent – while in inner London it increased from around 70 per cent to more than 80 per cent. 16
Many people in outer London use their cars even for short local trips: more than half of all car trips made in outer London are less than two miles in length. 48 The lack of suitable infrastructure for walking and cycling accounts for some of these short car journeys. However, for many short trips, it is simply the convenience of private cars that leads people to drive rather than walk or cycle.
Further, a substantial number of trips are made between outer London and the wider South East of England. Some people in outer London have a car in part to support their journeys outside London.
What trips could be switched?
Many car trips in outer London can already be made by other, more sustainable forms of transport.
Transport for London’s most recent Travel in London report 49 explores the idea of “switchable trips”.
Switchable trips are defined as those which are currently made by car but could theoretically be made by other more sustainable modes, depending on the availability and suitability of alternatives as well as the propensity of the person making the trip to choose them. TfL modelled these, and found that the trips with a high likelihood of switching include those that have the most competitive alternatives to cars, such as trips made in areas where there are frequent and reliable public transport services. Measures that could be put in place to encourage the use of these may include disincentives to drive, or greater provision of information on sustainable transport options.
The report suggests that the highest number of car trips with a high likelihood of switching are those that have both their origin and destination within outer London – nearly half a million (494,000) daily trips. 16 Areas with higher numbers of car trips with a high likelihood of switching to sustainable modes include areas in outer east London such as Redbridge, Waltham Forest, Greenwich and Bexley (see Figure 7). 16
