Katie Townsend looks at the promises in the top four candidates manifestos, and how their policies align with our own recommendations.

2024, another London Mayoral Election, but with a new ‘first past the post’ voting system replacing the preferential system and with a new requirement for photo ID  to place your vote. We’ll find out soon how these changes have affected voter turn-out and decision-making, but in the meantime, let’s take look at each of the candidates’ manifestos.

Sadiq Khan

Our incumbent Labour Party Mayor’s manifesto begins with an ambitious 10-point plan then splits into four sections, making London: fairer, safer, greener and more prosperous. Front and centre of his manifesto sits housing reform. With one in four Londoners facing poverty after housing costs and Londoner’s placing housing as one of their top three issues facing the capital, it’s unsurprising Khan has fronted his re-election campaign with housing.  

Specifically, Khan’s 10-point-plan promises to build 40,000 new council homes, alongside at least 6000 ‘rent-control’ homes for key workers, and to negotiate a new deal for renters. He tops off his housing pledges with the ambitious target of ending homelessness by 2030. Seeing as rough sleeping has doubled in the last decade in London, this will be a huge feat to accomplish.  

Outside of commitments to housing, his plan covers transport in the form of freezing TFL fares and a bus fleet containing only zero-emission vehicles. His vision for a ‘safer’ London includes 1300 additional policeman alongside an injection of capital into youth clubs, which he states will provide an immense 250,000 opportunities for young Londoners. This ties into his ‘Good Growth Plan’, an economic plan which promises 150,000 ‘good jobs’ by 2030. Placed in prime position as point 1 in his manifesto is Khan’s pledge to continue free school meals, a policy has become renowned for throughout his time as mayor.  

Interestingly, one policy position is notably absent from Sadiq Khan’s manifesto. ‘Protecting the green belt’ was a prominent feature in both his 2016 and 2021 manifestos, yet no mention of the green belt appears in 2024. Could this mean strategic, affordable housebuilding on low-quality areas of the green belt could be on the cards if Khan is re-elected? At Centre for London, building on carefully selected areas of the ‘green’ belt (a term which has come to encompass some land which is far more grey than green) is one of the key recommendations of our research into London’s housing crisis. So this would be welcome news. 

Other Centre for London recommendations are more clearly visible in labour’s manifesto. His advocacy for the ‘‘new land assembly zones’ and mayoral development corporations aligns closely with our recommendation to get boroughs building by establishing sub-regional consortiums or delivery bodies for new housing developments. Meanwhile, he pledges his support for selective licencing schemes allowing boroughs to regulate private landlords a policy outlined in our licence to let report. In transport, outer London features heavily with a second ‘superloop’ developed to further connect outer London towns, while the successful school streets initiatives which limit traffic during drop-off and pick-up – as visible in our Street Shift report – would be expanded under Khan. He has however, disappointingly ruled out any further moves on road-user-charging, stating the pay-per-mile will not be implemented if he is re-elected.   

Susan Hall  

The Evening Standard has described this election as a two-horse race. The second person racing – according to them – is the Conservative candidate, Susan Hall. She launched her campaign with a heavily anti-ULEZ stance, stating she would revoke the ULEZ extension on ‘day one of her election.’ Her manifesto repeats this claim, further stating Khan’s ‘pay-per-mile’ scheme (something he has outrightly stated he will NOT implement in his manifesto) will be chucked in the bin. According to her, ‘it’s that simple.’ Her policies favouring motorists continue within her manifesto, stating she will allow councils to remove Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and lift the 20-mile-per-hour speed limits where safe to do so. These sit alongside pledges within public transport to increase access to public toilets, invest in the Central Line and conduct an independent review into TFL’s practices.  

Outside of transport she has numerous pledges surrounding the police, including 1500 new police officers, prioritising borough-based policing and instating a Women’s Commissioner to safeguard women and girls. She also specifically announces plans on knife crime such as purchasing ‘knife wands’ for frontline policeman and providing ‘knife arches’ to all schools who wish to have them. Housing is next on the agenda for Hall, where she pledges to build family homes over high-rise buildings, push through planning applications and protect the green belt.  

Hall also outlines some points in her manifesto which align with Centre for London research. In a bid to allow safe travel for those who are disabled and visually impaired, she echoes our calls for regulation around e-bike parking, as published in our street clutter report. She also discusses the allocation of parking spots for car clubs, which formed part of our outer London transport strategy to replace private car ownership with a shared transport model. However, with no manifesto point calling for further devolution to London government, if elected, she may find she has less power to make changes in policing, housebuilding, and London’s transport than she initially anticipated.  

Rob Blackie  

Polling in third, Rob Blackie and the Liberal Democrats have led with the line ‘fix the Met, fix London’. A bold statement born out of Londoners’ dissatisfaction with Khan’s record on policing (60% stating they are unhappy with his current performance to date). Outside of the usual ‘more police on the street’s’ rhetoric visible across all manifestos, Blackie adds an additional commitment to increase administrative staff and reduce paperwork for the police force, freeing them up to tackle crime. Major crimes, according to Blackie, will be prioritised, particularly catching sexual predators. His additional pledges include preventing Thames Water from dumping sewage into our rivers, further commitments on affordable housebuilding including creating a London Wide development company and bringing London far closer to the European Union.

Amid his promises sits clear advocacy for an Outer London Transport strategy a central tenant of our Moving with the Times report, as well as a pledge to negotiate increased devolution to London – particularly fiscal devolution – a point repeated throughout our work on rebooting London’s economy. These sit alongside promises such as a replication of the Erasmus scheme, similarly promised by Khan, and a policy we have been advocating for since 2017.  

Zoe Garbett 

Hot on Blackie’s heels set to gain 8% of the vote, Garbett’s Green Party manifesto contains varied yet specific pledges to win support. They have fronted the campaign with the phrase ‘right homes in the right place’, making the same commitment as Susan Hall to not build on the green belt and aligning with Khan to campaign for a new deal for renters. With a further commitment to build 50,000 new social rent homes annually, it will be interesting to see where they will find the space – especially with their promise to create 10 new parks in London. Outside of the built environment, Garbett shares her commitments on fairer policing, re-affirming London’s 2030 net-zero commitment, freezing bus fares, and promising a real living wage for London at £16.14 an hour.  

As with the other candidates, we can see some of Garbett’s policies aligning with Centre for London’s work. The Greens have stated their aim to end the Right-to-Buy scheme, a policy we deemed necessary in our report on solving London’s housing crisis. They outline how they wish to ‘set stricter standards for larger, more polluting vehicles, such as SUVs and diesel-powered vehicles, basing charges on these factors as well as distance travelled’, a clear alignment with our road-user-charging strategy.  Finally, the Greens outline a similar campaign to the Liberal Democrats calling for devolution of fiscal powers to London government, to move away from competitive national funding pots.   

Conclusion

Ultimately, whoever wins the next election will inherit a huge level of responsibility. However, currently our next Mayor’s powers to make substantial changes remains limited – all candidates would require more devolved powers to achieve the pledges outlined in their manifestos. Our hope, at Centre for London, is to see the next Mayor strike up a new devolution deal for London, one which brings decision making closer to the people it affects.